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 Chance of M and X Class Solar Flares In The Next Few Days.

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OathKeepingJarhead
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PostSubject: Chance of M and X Class Solar Flares In The Next Few Days.   Wed Feb 20, 2013 8:30 pm

A growing sunspot is beginning to become more active and may produce a signifigant solar flare over the next few days. Good news is that it is not directly facing Earth and it is moving toward the back side of the sun. It is still in a position that a flare would give us a glancing blow to our atmosphere but the most we would get is some great auroras. It will be interesting to see if it continues to gain strenght as it rotates around the sun and if it will still be active or not when it returns.

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At the beginning of this week, sunspot AR1678 didn't exist. Now it is five times wider than our entire planet. NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the sunspot's rapid emergence on Feb. 19-20:

Sunspots are islands of magnetism that float on the surface of the sun. This one is emerging from depth and changing at such a rapid pace that its magnetic field is likely unstable. A reconnection event in AR1678's magnetic canopy could lead to a significant solar flare.

New sunspot AR1678 has developed a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 15% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

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